Online citations, reference lists, and bibliographies.
Referencing for people who value simplicity, privacy, and speed.
Get Citationsy
← Back to Search

An Application Of The Theory Of Probabilities To The Study Of A Priori Pathometry.—Part I

R. Ross, H. P. Hudson

Save to my Library
Download PDF
Analyze on Scholarcy Visualize in Litmaps
Reduce the time it takes to create your bibliography by a factor of 10 by using the world’s favourite reference manager
Time to take this seriously.
Get Citationsy
Prefatory .—It is somewhat surprising that so little mathematical work should have been done on the subject of epidemics, and, indeed, on the distribution of diseases in general. Not only is the theme of immediate importance to humanity, but it is one which is fundamentally connected with numbers, while vast masses of statistics have long been awaiting proper examination. But, more than this, many and indeed the principal problems of epidemiology on which preventive measures largely depend, such as the rate of infection, the frequency of outbreaks, and the loss of immunity, can scarcely ever be resolved by any other methods than those of analysis. For example, infections diseases may perbaps be classified in three groups: (1) diseases such as leprosy, tuberculosis, and (?) cancer, which fluctuate comparatively little from month to month, though they may slowly increase or decrease in the course of years; (2) diseases such as measles, scarlatina, malaria, and dysentery, which, though constantly present in many countries, flare up in epidemics at frequent intervals; and (3) diseases such as plague or cholera, which disappear entirely after periods of acute epidemicity. To what are these differences due? Why, indeed, should epidemics occur at all, and why sbould not all infections diseases belong to the first group and always remain at an almost flat rate? Behind these phenomena there must be causes which are of profound importance to mankind and which probably can be ascertained only by those principles of careful computation which have yielded such brilliant results in astronomy, physics, and mechanics. Are the epidemics in the second class of diseases due (1) to a sudden and simultaneous increase of infectivity in the causative agents living in affected persons; or (2) to changes of environment which favour their dissemination from person to person; or (3) merely to the increase of suscep­tible material in a locality due to the gradual loss of acquired immunity in the population there; or to similar or other causes? And why should diseases of tbs third class disappear, as they undoubtedly do, and diseases of the first class remain so persistently?—all questions which immediately and obviously present themselves for examination.
This paper references

This paper is referenced by
Prevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in cattle and swine in The Netherlands: towards an integrated control of livestock production.
F. van Knapen (1995)
Sickness absence, moral hazard, and the business cycle.
Stefan Pichler (2015)
Archimedean copula and contagion modeling in epidemiology
J. Demongeot (2013)
A model for transmission of partial resistance to anti-malarial drugs.
H. Tasman (2009)
Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens
D. L. Smith (2012)
[Networks: epidemiology of transmissible diseases from a systemic perspective].
C. Codeço (2008)
Nash Social Distancing Games with Equity Constraints: How Inequality Aversion Affects the Spread of Epidemics
I. Kordonis (2020)
The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control
Samuel P. C. Brand (2016)
Ecological aspects in vaccine trials
Mohammad Ali (2008)
Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens
Bruce A Wilcox (2005)
A model of the dynamic of transmission of malaria, integrating SEIRS, SEIS, SIRS and SIS organization in the host-population
S. Y. Tchoumi (2015)
The role of religion among women in the HIV epidemic in Malawi
A. Muula (2009)
Analysis of a malaria model with mosquito host choice and bed-net control
B. Buonomo (2013)
Reticulate Evolution
Gontier (2015)
Systems biology of persistent infection: tuberculosis as a case study
D. Young (2008)
Global challenges of changing epidemiological patterns of malaria.
W. Wernsdorfer (2012)
Threshold dynamics of a time periodic and two--group epidemic model with distributed delay.
Lin Zhao (2017)
Causal diagrams for interference
Elizabeth L. Ogburn (2014)
John Brownlee and the Measurement of Infectiousness: An Historical Study in Epidemic Theory
P. Fine (1979)
Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis
C. Davis (2019)
Assessing Vaccine Herd Protection by Killed Whole-Cell Oral Cholera Vaccines Using Different Study Designs
Mohammad Ali (2019)
Babesia bovis: computer simulation of the relationship between the tick vector, parasite, and bovine host.
R. Smith (1983)
Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics
G. G. Katul (2020)
Infection percolation: A dynamic network model of disease spreading
C. A. Browne (2021)
Modelling parasite transmission and control
E. Michael (2010)
Efficient Bayesian inference for partially observed stochastic epidemics and a new class of semi-parametric time series models
T. Kypraios (2007)
Estimating the basic reproduction number from surveillance data on past epidemics.
S. Froda (2014)
Exposure efficacy and change in contact rates in evaluating prophylactic HIV vaccines in the field.
M. Halloran (1994)
Malaria Vaccines: Lessons from Field Trials Vacinas Anti-Maláricas: Lições Aprendidas em Ensaios de Campo
C. Struchiner (1994)
Systems Biology of Microbial Infection
R. Guthke (2012)
HOMOSID : une micro-simulation de l'épidémie liée au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine dans la population des hommes ayant des relations sexuelles avec des hommes en France
A. Jannot (2011)
Viral Social Learning
David McAdams (2020)
See more
Semantic Scholar Logo Some data provided by SemanticScholar