Online citations, reference lists, and bibliographies.
← Back to Search

Asbestosis Mortality In The USA: Facts And Predictions

V. C. dos Santos Antao, G. Pinheiro, J. Wassell
Published 2008 · Medicine

Cite This
Download PDF
Analyze on Scholarcy
Background: Mortality trends in the USA show that deaths from asbestosis are increasing, while deaths related to other pneumoconiosis are declining. Objectives: To analyse the association between asbestos consumption and asbestosis mortality trends. Methods: In an epidemiological time series study, we used a modern computer-intensive local regression method to evaluate the relationship between asbestos consumption per capita (1900–2006) as the predictor variable and number of deaths from asbestosis (1968–2004). The predictor variable was progressively lagged by annual increments from 30 to 60 years and the goodness of fit assessed for each lag period. The model having the smallest Akaike’s Information Criteria was used to derive extrapolated estimates of future mortality based on more recent asbestos consumption data. Results: Asbestos consumption per capita reached a peak in 1951 and gradually declined until 1973, when it started to drop rapidly. In 2006, it was 0.0075 kg/person/year. There were 25 564 deaths from asbestosis over the period 1968–2004. The best-fitting model (adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) = 99.7%) for 1968–2004 deaths from asbestosis used asbestos consumption per capita 48 years prior (1920–1956) and the log value of asbestos consumption per capita 43 years prior (1925–1961). This model predicts a total of 29 667 deaths (95% CI 19 629 to 39 705) to occur during 2005–2027 (an average of 1290 deaths per year). Conclusions: This study demonstrates a clear association between asbestos consumption and deaths from asbestosis and indicates that asbestosis deaths are not expected to decrease sharply in the next 10–15 years.
This paper references
Ecological Relationship between Mesothelioma Incidence/Mortality and Asbestos Consumption in Ten Western Countries and Japan
K. Takahashi (1999)
Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: A model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age‐period‐cohort models
A. Marinaccio (2005)
Worldwide asbestos supply and consumption trends from 1900 to 2000
R. L. Virta (2003)
Asbestos : manufacture , importation , processing , and distribution in commerce prohibitions , final rule ( 54 FR 29460 , July 12 , 1989 )
RL Virta (1995)
Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service. International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision. Clinical Modification Fourth Edition
Ecological association between asbestos
RT (2004)
On the use of generalized additive models in time-series studies of air pollution and health.
F. Dominici (2002)
Generalized Additive Models.
R. Brown (1991)
Belgium: historical champion in asbestos consumption
T. Nawrot (2007)
Projections of asbestos-related disease 1980-2009.
A. Walker (1983)
Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Washington: Asbestos Standard for General Industry, Revised, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration
해외산업간호정보 - 미국 산업안전보건연구원(National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) 소개
이수정 (2009)
Historical National Population Estimates
U S Bureau
Global Use of Asbestos and the Incidence of Mesothelioma
A. Tossavainen (2004)
Statistical Models in S
J. M. Chambers (1991)
Public Health Service, Centers for Disease Control, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Revised Recommended Asbestos Standard
International Classification of Diseases--9th revision.
P. Loy (1978)
Occupational exposure to asbestos: population at risk and projected mortality--1980-2030.
W. Nicholson (1982)
Eighth Revision International Classification of Diseases, adapted for use in the United States. Public Health Service Publication number 1693
Asbestos: Geology, Mineralogy, Mining, and Uses
R. L. Virta (2002)
Occupational Safety and Health Administration
Ecological association between asbestos-related diseases and historical asbestos consumption: an international analysis
Ro-Ting Lin (2007)
Diagnosis and initial management of nonmalignant diseases related to asbestos.
D. Weill (2005)
Asbestos: manufacture, importation, processing, and distribution in commerce prohibitions, final rule (54 FR 29460
Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing
computing. Vienna (2006)
Annual estimates of the population for the United States, regions, and divisions
U S Bureau
Belgium: historical champion in asbestos
TS Nawrot (1980)
World Health Organization. Geneva: International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision
Diagnosis and initial management of nonmalignant diseases related to asbestos.
D. Smith (2005)
Changing Patterns of Pneumoconiosis Mortality — United States , 1968 – 2000
C RobertF.FaganDeborahA.AdamsFeliciaJ.ConnorLatekaDa (2004)
Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction With R
A. Chiang (2007)
Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
T. Cooper (1976)

This paper is referenced by
Review of the effectiveness of predictive models for mesothelioma to identify lessons for asbestos-related policy
Alison Reid (2016)
Asbestosis and mesothelioma among British asbestos workers (1971-2005).
Anne-Helen Harding (2010)
Pneumoconioses and Other Mineral Dust–Related Diseases
R. Cowie (2010)
Asbestos use and asbestos‐related diseases in Asia: Past, present and future
G. Le (2011)
Global Magnitude of Reported and Unreported Mesothelioma
Eun-Kee Park (2011)
GOLD COPD classification and prognostic pessimism regarding ICU admission
A. Collins (2011)
Airborne asbestos concentrations associated with heavy equipment brake removal.
A. Madl (2009)
Current and future risks of asbestos exposure in the Australian community
Corie Gray (2016)
Unanswered Questions Regarding Asbestos Exposure: Concerns for the Next Generation
D. Banks (2012)
Global Impact of Occupational and Environmental Lung Diseases
Eric D. Amster (2012)
Respiratory Tract and Mediastinum
P. Spieler (2012)
Introduction From Dangerous Trades to Trade in Dangers : Toward an Industrial Hazard History of the Present
J. Melling ()
Asbestos Exposure Results in Asbestosis and Usual Interstitial Pneumonia Similar to Other Causes of Pneumoconiosis
Y. Kawabata (2019)
Asbestos exposure and mesothelioma incidence and mortality in Bulgaria
K. Vangelova (2016)
Factors Affecting Asbestosis Mortality Among Asbestos-Cement Workers in Italy.
P. Girardi (2020)
Trends and Patterns of Differences in Chronic Respiratory Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014
L. Dwyer-Lindgren (2017)
Classification and management of asbestos-containing waste: European legislation and the Italian experience.
F. Paglietti (2016)
Les différentes pathologies pleuropulmonaires liées à l’amiante : définitions, épidémiologie et évolution
J. Ameille (2012)
Comparative Assessment of Asbestos-Containing and Alternative Materials in Turkish Industrial Facilities
F. Karadagli (2011)
Asbestosis and general health among migrant shipbreakers from northern Bangladesh
Midori N. Courtice (2010)
Asbestos related diseases among workers of asbestos processing plants in relation to type of production and asbestos use.
N. Szeszenia-Dąbrowska (2015)
Asbestosis hospitalizations in Poland (2006-2016): results from the National Hospital Discharge Registry.
K. Kanecki (2020)
UK asbestos imports and mortality due to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
C. Barber (2016)
Importance of past occupational exposures in the rising incidence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the UK
C. Barber (2011)
National Use of Asbestos in Relation to Economic Development
Giang Vinh Le (2010)
Interstitial lung diseases among patients hospitalized in the Department of Respiratory Medicine in Radom District Hospital during the years 2000 – 2009
Oddział Pulmonologiczny (2012)
The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.
E. Algranti (2015)
Diseases attributable to asbestos exposure: years of potential life lost, United States, 1999-2010.
K. M. Bang (2014)
Asbestos: use, bans and disease burden in Europe
T. Kameda (2014)
Asbestos–Related Pleuropulmonary Diseases: Benign and Malignant
A. Lazarus (2012)
Asbestos and lung diseases: introduction and epidemiology.
J. A. Nations (2011)
Semantic Scholar Logo Some data provided by SemanticScholar