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Impacts Of The World Recession And Economic Crisis On Tourism: Forecasts And Potential Risks

Egon Smeral

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In the face of the world recession, this article concentrates on analyzing and forecasting demand for outbound traveling in Australia, Canada, United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the global recession and its impact on tourism demand for outbound traveling, the article develops forecasts for the period from 2009 to 2010. For 2010, two scenarios are created to project demand for foreign travel. The study is rounded off by a discussion of forecast uncertainties and open questions.