Online citations, reference lists, and bibliographies.
Please confirm you are human
(Sign Up for free to never see this)
← Back to Search

Predicting Potential Global Distributions Of Two Miscanthus Grasses: Implications For Horticulture, Biofuel Production, And Biological Invasions

H. Hager, S. Sinasac, Z. Gedalof, J. Newman
Published 2014 · Geography, Medicine

Save to my Library
Download PDF
Analyze on Scholarcy
Share
In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models’ sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.
This paper references
10.2307/3236222
Climate and the distribution of Fallopia japonica: use of an introduced species to test the predictive capacity of response surfaces
D. Beerling (1995)
10.2307/1313438
Deliberate Introductions of Species: Research Needs Benefits can be reaped, but risks are high
J. Ewel (1999)
10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01108.x
Variability and adaptability of Miscanthus species evaluated for energy crop domestication
J. Yan (2012)
10.1016/S0169-5347(98)01554-7
Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?
Dukes (1999)
Cold tolerance of C 4 photosynthesis in Miscanthus x giganteus: adaptation in amounts and sequence of C 4 photosynthetic enzymes
Sl Naidu (2003)
10.1641/B580111
Nonnative Species and Bioenergy: Are We Cultivating the Next Invader?
J. Barney (2008)
10.1007/978-1-60761-214-8_3
Agronomic experiences with Miscanthus x giganteus in Illinois, USA.
Richard J. Pyter (2009)
Grasses of Ontario. Agriculture Canada Monograph 26
W G Dore (1980)
10.1016/J.BIOMBIOE.2009.01.005
Establishing perennial grass energy crops in the UK: A review of current propagation options for Miscanthus
C. Atkinson (2009)
10.1890/11-1930.1
Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling.
M. Araújo (2012)
10.1016/0167-8809(85)90016-7
A computerised system for matching climates in ecology
R. W. Sutherst (1985)
10.2307/633873
Climate and plant distribution
F. Woodward (1987)
10.2307/2845742
Predicting the Australian Weed Status of Southern African Plants
J. Scott (1993)
10.1111/J.1755-263X.2010.00097.X
Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change.
M. Kearney (2010)
10.1071/CP11303
Plant adaptation to climate change—opportunities and priorities in breeding
S. Chapman (2012)
10.1017/CBO9780511976988.002
Summary for policy makers
M. Sutton (2011)
10.1603/0046-225X-34.2.317
A Climate Model of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Implications for Invasion of New Regions, Particularly Oceania
R. W. Sutherst (2005)
Potential dynamics in overlapping zones of Phragmites australis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus
S Yamasaki (1990)
10.1111/J.1472-4642.2009.00602.X
The global invasion success of Central European plants is related to distribution characteristics in their native range and species traits
P. Pyšek (2009)
Climate models and their evaluation Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Da Randall (2007)
10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2
Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology
M. New (1999)
10.1111/gcb.12344
Will climate change promote future invasions?
C. Bellard (2013)
IPCC Special Report: emissions scenarios. Summary for policy makers. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(2000)
10.2179/08-040.1
Photosynthetic Characteristics of the C4 Invasive Exotic Grass Miscanthus sinensis Andersson Growing Along Gradients of Light Intensity in the Southeastern United States
J. Horton (2010)
10.1007/s00442-002-1170-7
Czech alien flora and the historical pattern of its formation: what came first to Central Europe?
P. Pyšek (2003)
10.1111/J.1461-0248.2007.01060.X
Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion.
O. Broennimann (2007)
10.1073/pnas.0607324104
Increased genetic variation and evolutionary potential drive the success of an invasive grass
S. Lavergne (2007)
10.2307/2265769
The Varying Success of Invaders
M. Williamson (1996)
10.1007/s12155-011-9163-1
Environmental Tolerances of Miscanthus sinensis in Invasive and Native Populations
L. Quinn (2011)
10.1007/s10531-009-9751-y
Determinants of the geographical extent of invasive plants in China: effects of biogeographical origin, life cycle and time since introduction
Q. Huang (2009)
10.1111/J.1365-3040.2005.01460.X
Low growth temperatures modify the efficiency of light use by photosystem II for CO2 assimilation in leaves of two chilling-tolerant C4 species, Cyperus longus L. and Miscanthus x giganteus.
P. Farage (2006)
CLIMEX Version 3: User's Guide
R. W. Sutherst (2007)
10.1111/J.1744-7348.2006.00099.X
Genotypic variation in cold tolerance influences the yield of Miscanthus
A. D. Farrell (2006)
10.1177/0309133306071957
Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change
R. Heikkinen (2006)
10.1007/s10530-009-9467-7
The role of parasite release in invasion of the USA by European slugs
J. Ross (2009)
10.1046/J.1469-8137.2002.00381.X
Comparative responses to water stress in stay-green, rapid- and slow senescing genotypes of the biomass crop, Miscanthus
J. Clifton-Brown (2002)
10.1890/10-1230.1
Plant invasions, generalist herbivores, and novel defense weapons.
U. Schaffner (2011)
10.1111/J.1472-4642.2008.00473.X
Rapid evolution in introduced species, 'invasive traits' and recipient communities: challenges for predicting invasive potential
K. D. Whitney (2008)
10.1111/j.1757-1707.2009.01007.x
The development of MISCANFOR, a new Miscanthus crop growth model: towards more robust yield predictions under different climatic and soil conditions
A. Hastings (2009)
Photosynthetic characteristics of the C 4 invasive exotic grass Miscanthus sinensis Andersson growing along gradients of light intensity in the southeastern United States
JL Horton (2010)
10.2134/AGRONJ2001.9351013X
Performance of 15 Miscanthus genotypes at five sites in Europe
J. Clifton-Brown (2001)
10.1016/B978-0-12-381518-7.00003-0
Miscanthus: A Promising Biomass Crop
E. Heaton (2010)
10.1007/978-3-540-32730-1
Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World
J. Canadell (2007)
10.1007/s10530-010-9905-6
The potential global distribution of the invasive weed Nassella neesiana under current and future climates
G. Bourdôt (2010)
10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.008
Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities.
Gian-Reto Walther (2009)
10.3732/ajb.1000258
Discovery of natural Miscanthus (Poaceae) triploid plants in sympatric populations of Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Miscanthus sinensis in southern Japan.
A. Nishiwaki (2011)
10.1111/J.1365-2486.2007.01396.X
Including species interactions in risk assessments for global change
R. W. Sutherst (2007)
10.1007/s10265-002-0049-3
Phylogenetics of Miscanthus, Saccharum and related genera (Saccharinae, Andropogoneae, Poaceae) based on DNA sequences from ITS nuclear ribosomal DNA and plastid trnL intron and trnL-F intergenic spacers
T. Hodkinson (2002)
10.1007/978-3-540-32730-1_17
Pests Under Global Change — Meeting Your Future Landlords?
R. Sutherst (2007)
10.1111/J.1365-3180.2010.00827.X
Managing invasive weeds under climate change: considering the current and potential future distribution of Buddleja davidii
Darren J. Kriticos (2011)
10.1007/s10530-011-0061-4
Development and validation of a weed screening tool for the United States
Anthony L. Koop (2011)
10.1126/SCIENCE.1129313
Adding Biofuels to the Invasive Species Fire?
S. Raghu (2006)
10.1046/J.1472-4642.2001.00103.X
Mutualism as a constraint on invasion success for legumes and rhizobia
M. Parker (2001)
Dymex simulator application 2.0. South Yarra
(2004)
10.1111/J.1365-2338.2012.02545.X
A decision‐support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis*
R. Baker (2012)
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
J. Gregory (2007)
10.1111/J.1365-2486.2008.01620.X
Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models
A. Mika (2008)
10.1104/pp.103.021790
Cold Tolerance of C4 photosynthesis in Miscanthus × giganteus: Adaptation in Amounts and Sequence of C4 Photosynthetic Enzymes1
S. Naidu (2003)
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01395.x
Phenotypic divergence during the invasion of Phyla canescens in Australia and France: evidence for selection-driven evolution.
C. Xu (2010)
10.1126/SCIENCE.105.2727.367
Determination of World Plant Formations From Simple Climatic Data.
L. R. Holdridge (1947)
10.1016/J.FORECO.2006.04.036
Potential climatic suitability for establishment of Phytophthora ramorum within the contiguous United States
R. Venette (2006)
10.1046/J.1365-2699.2003.00861.X
Prediction of species geographical ranges
R. W. Sutherst (2003)
10.1016/J.BIOMBIOE.2009.10.009
Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios.
J. Barney (2010)
10.1371/journal.pone.0040969
Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L.
S. Taylor (2012)
10.1046/J.1469-8137.2000.00764.X
Overwintering problems of newly established Miscanthus plantations can be overcome by identifying genotypes with improved rhizome cold tolerance
J. Clifton-Brown (2000)
Grasses of Ontario. Agriculture Canada Monograph 26. Hull, Quebec, Canada: Canadian Government Publishing Centre
WG Dore (1980)
10.1614/IPSM-D-10-00067.1
Empirical Evidence of Long-Distance Dispersal in Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus
L. Quinn (2011)
Climate models and their evaluation
D. Randall (2007)
10.1111/J.1755-263X.2008.00032.X
Screening new plant introductions for potential invasiveness: a test of impacts for the United States.
D. Gordon (2008)
10.1007/s10530-011-0094-8
Latitudinal shifts of introduced species: possible causes and implications
Q. Guo (2011)
10.1126/SCIENCE.1136843
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
S. Rahmstorf (2007)
10.1006/JEMA.1999.0297
A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions
P. Pheloung (1999)
10.1080/09064710310017605
Establishment, Development and Yield Quality of Fifteen Miscanthus Genotypes over Three Years in Denmark
U. Jørgensen (2003)
10.2307/2421495
Plants and environment : textbook of plant autecology
R. Daubenmire (1959)
Grasses of Ontario
W. Dore (1980)
10.1111/j.1752-4571.2012.00287.x
A resurrection study reveals rapid adaptive evolution within populations of an invasive plant
S. Sultan (2013)
10.1525/bio.2010.60.5.5
Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement
R. Venette (2010)
10.2307/3298562
The United States naturalized flora: Largely the product of deliberate introductions'
R. Mack (2002)
10.1614/IPSM-D-13-00037.1
Natural History Survey of the Ornamental Grass Miscanthus sinensis in the Introduced Range
Ryan F. Dougherty (2014)
Miscanthus: a promising biomass crop Advances in botanical research
Ea Heaton (2010)
10.1126/science.1215933
Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders
B. Petitpierre (2012)
10.1111/j.1757-1707.2010.01062.x
Invasiveness potential of Miscanthus sinensis: implications for bioenergy production in the United States
L. Quinn (2010)
10.1016/0304-3770(90)90053-N
Population dynamics in overlapping zones of Phragmites australis and sacchriflorus sacchariflorus
S. Yamasaki (1990)
10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045904
Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops
S. Flory (2012)
10.1007/s10201-012-0386-4
Physiological mechanisms for plant distribution pattern: responses to flooding and drought in three wetland plants from Dongting Lake, China
F. Li (2012)
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x
Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges.
M. Kearney (2009)
10.1111/J.1461-0248.2005.00792.X
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
A. Guisan (2005)
International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures: Framework for Pest Risk Analysis. ISPM No 2. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization
(2007)
10.1007/s00425-004-1322-6
Potential mechanisms of low-temperature tolerance of C4 photosynthesis in Miscanthus × giganteus: an in vivo analysis
S. Naidu (2004)
10.1016/S0169-5347(02)02499-0
Exotic plant invasions and the enemy release hypothesis
Ryan M. Keane (2002)
10.1023/A:1026193424587
Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine
D. Kriticos (2004)
10.1111/j.1461-9563.2009.00464.x
Climate change scenarios and models yield conflicting predictions about the future risk of an invasive species in North America
A. Mika (2010)
10.1111/J.1365-2745.2010.01677.X
Evidence for climatic niche and biome shifts between native and novel ranges in plant species introduced to Australia
R. Gallagher (2010)
Phytogeographic notes on Rottboellia, Paspalum, and Miscanthus (Gramineae)
R. Pohl (1963)
Biofuels : methods and protocols
J. Mielenz (2009)
REPRESENTING TWENTIETH CENTURY SPACE-TIME CLIMATE VARIABILITY.
M. Hulme (1998)



This paper is referenced by
10.1007/s10530-014-0839-2
Escaped Miscanthus sacchariflorus reduces the richness and diversity of vegetation and the soil seed bank
H. Hager (2014)
10.1017/9781108163941.011
Grassland invasion in a changing climate
J. Catford (2019)
10.2478/s11756-018-0143-1
Energy crops affecting farmland birds in Central Europe: insights from a miscanthus-dominated landscape
J. M. Kaczmarek (2018)
10.1007/s10530-015-0950-z
Mitigating the potential for invasive spread of the exotic biofuel crop, Miscanthus × giganteus
Shannon E. Pittman (2015)
10.1614/IPSM-D-16-00030.1
Population Genetics and Seed Set in Feral, Ornamental Miscanthus sacchariflorus
E. Mutegi (2016)
10.1371/journal.pone.0175978
Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models
Tobi A. Oke (2017)
10.3389/fpls.2017.00767
Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops
N. M. West (2017)
10.3389/fmicb.2020.581867
Influenza A Virus Nucleoprotein Activates the JNK Stress-Signaling Pathway for Viral Replication by Sequestering Host Filamin A Protein
Anshika Sharma (2020)
Influence of herbaceous biomass crops on soil organic carbon in southern Ontario soils
Jordan Graham (2018)
10.5772/INTECHOPEN.69736
Beyond Turf and Lawn: Poaceae in This Age of Climate Change
Katherine Dunster (2017)
10.1007/s12155-015-9683-1
Discovery of Natural Interspecific Hybrids Between Miscanthus Sacchariflorus and Miscanthus Sinensis in Southern Japan: Morphological Characterization, Genetic Structure, and Origin
K. Tamura (2015)
10.1098/rsbl.2016.0714
Potential of global croplands and bioenergy crops for climate change mitigation through deployment for enhanced weathering
I. Kantola (2017)
10.3390/land9120509
The Potential of Switchgrass and Miscanthus to Enhance Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration—Predicted by DayCent Model
Marek K. Jarecki (2020)
10.1007/s10584-018-2265-4
Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps
Jennifer Cronin (2018)
10.30901/2658-3860-2019-4-35-49
Прогнозирование областей культивирования Miscanthus sacchariflorus (Poaceae) на территории Российской Федерации
Л. В. Багмет (2020)
10.1002/ece3.3134
Growth and fecundity of fertile Miscanthus × giganteus (“PowerCane”) compared to feral and ornamental Miscanthus sinensis in a common garden experiment: Implications for invasion
M. Miriti (2017)
Horizon scanning and environmental risk analyses of non-native biomass crops in the Netherlands
J. Matthews (2015)
10.1111/gcbb.12671
Projections of global and UK bioenergy potential from Miscanthus × giganteus—Feedstock yield, carbon cycling and electricity generation in the 21st century
A. Shepherd (2020)
10.1016/J.RSER.2015.10.040
Assessment of the production potentials of Miscanthus on marginal land in China
Shuai Xue (2016)
Semantic Scholar Logo Some data provided by SemanticScholar