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A 3D Copula Method For The Impact And Risk Assessment Of Drought Disaster And An Example Application

Wei Hou, Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Dongdong Zuo

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Droughts have more impact on crops than any other natural disaster. Therefore, drought risk assessments, especially quantitative drought risk assessments, are significant in order to understand and reduce the negative impacts associated with droughts, and a quantitative risk assessment includes estimating the probability and consequences of hazards. In order to achieve this goal, we built a model based on the three-dimensional (3D) Copula function for the assessment of the proportion of affected farmland areas (PAFA) based on the idea of internally combining the drought duration, drought intensity, and drought impact. This model achieves the “internal combination” of drought characteristics and drought impacts rather than an “external combination.” The results of this model are not only able to provide the impacts at different levels that a drought event (drought duration and drought intensity) may cause, but are also able to show the occurrence probability of impact at each particular level. We took Huize County and Mengzi County in Yunnan Province as application examples based on the meteorological drought index (SPI), and the results showed that the PAFAs obtained by the method proposed in this paper were basically consistent with the actual PAFAs in the two counties. Moreover, due to the meteorological drought always occurring before an agricultural drought, we can get SPI predictions for the next month or months and can further obtain more abundant information on a drought warning and its impact. Therefore, the method proposed in this paper has values both on theory and practice.