Online citations, reference lists, and bibliographies.
← Back to Search

A Bayesian Methodology To Update The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

R. Secanell, Christophe Martin, E. Viallet, G. Senfaute
Published 2017 · Engineering

Save to my Library
Download PDF
Analyze on Scholarcy Visualize in Litmaps
Share
Reduce the time it takes to create your bibliography by a factor of 10 by using the world’s favourite reference manager
Time to take this seriously.
Get Citationsy
This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for updating the seismic hazard curves. The methodology is based on the comparison of predictive exceedance rates of a fixed acceleration level (given by the seismic hazard curves) and the observed exceedance rates in some selected sites. The application of the methodology needs, firstly, the definition of a prior probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based in a logic tree. Each main branch corresponds to a probabilistic model of calculus of seismic hazard. The method considers that, initially (or a priori), the weights of all branches of the logic tree are equivalent. Secondly, the method needs to compile the observations in the region. They are introduced in a database containing the recorded acceleration data (during the instrumental period). Nevertheless, the instrumental period in stable zones (as France) shows only very low acceleration levels recorded during a short observation period. Then, a method to enlarge the REX (number of observations) is presented taking into account the historical data and defining “synthetic” accelerations in the sites of observation. The synthetic REX allows to expand the period of observation and to increase the acceleration thresholds used in the Bayesian updating process. The application of the Bayesian approach leads to a new and more objective definition of the weights of each branch of the logic tree and, therefore, to new seismic hazard curves (mean and centiles). The Bayesian approach doesn’t change the probabilistic models (seismic hazard curves). It only modifies the weights of each branch of the logic tree.
This paper references
Proposta di definizione delle relazioni tra intensita’macrosismica e parametri de1 moto de1 suolo
L Decanini (1995)
10.4401/AG-3872
Correlation between macroseismic intensities and seismic ground motion parameters
G. Panza (1997)
10.1142/9781860943867
The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes
G. Woo (1999)
10.1080/13632460309350446
NEW EMPIRICAL RESPONSE SPECTRAL ATTENUATION LAWS FOR MODERATE EUROPEAN EARTHQUAKES
C. Berge-Thierry (2003)
10.1785/GSSRL.75.1.75
Reevaluation of Historic Earthquakes in Spain
J. Mezcua (2004)
Macroseismic intensities for seismic scenarios, estimated from instrumentally based correlations
C. Cauzzi (2006)
10.1785/0120050122
Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominant Period
J. Zhao (2006)
Aggiornamento relazioni fra l'intensità macrosismica e PGA. Progetto INGV-DPC S1, Deliverable D11.
A. G. Capera (2007)
10.1785/0120060154
Relationships between Felt Intensity and Instrumental Ground Motion in the Central United States and California
G. Atkinson (2007)
Evaluation probabiliste de l’aléa sismique en intensité à l’échelle nationale. Lois d’atténuation en intensité, tests des modèles et confrontation au Rex. Rapport GEOTER—Ref n GTR/EDF/0707-396
D Carbon (2007)
Evaluation probabiliste de l ’ aléa sismique en intensité à l ’ échelle nationale . Lois d ’ atténuation en intensité , tests des modèles et confrontation au Rex
D Carbon (2007)
Aléa sismique probabiliste: les limites d’une comparaison entre estimations et observations. 7ème Colloque National AFPS
C Beauval (2007)
A method for comparison of recent PSHA on the French territory with experimental feedback
N. Humbert (2008)
10.1007/S10950-008-9098-Y
Broadband (0.05 to 20 s) prediction of displacement response spectra based on worldwide digital records
C. Cauzzi (2008)
Consistency of PSHA models in acceleration and intensity by confrontation of predictive models to available observations in France
J Mezcua (2008)
10.1785/0120080347
Model Selection in Seismic Hazard Analysis: An Information-Theoretic Perspective
F. Scherbaum (2009)
10.1785/GSSRL.81.2.195
Empirical Equations for the Prediction of PGA, PGV, and Spectral Accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean Region, and the Middle East
S. Akkar (2010)
10.1785/0120100270
Modifications to Existing Ground-Motion Prediction Equations in Light of New Data
G. Atkinson (2011)
Initial probabilistic seismic hazard model for France’s southeast 1/4. Inputs to sigma project for tests and improvements
D Carbon (2012)
10.1785/0220130020
Observed and Calculated Intensities as a Test of a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis of Spain
J. Mezcua (2013)
10.1785/0120120091
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Combining Cornell-Like Approaches and Data at Sites through Bayesian Inference
J. Selva (2013)
Methodological exercise for testing a statistical approach to update a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Ref: SIGMA-2013-D4-139, web site
R Secannel (2014)
10.1785/0120160234
Regional Stochastic GMPEs in Low-Seismicity Areas: Scaling and Aleatory Variability Analysis—Application to the French Alps
S. Drouet (2015)
10.1785/0120140240
Regional Stochastic GMPEs in Low‐Seismicity Areas: Scaling and Aleatory Variability Analysis—Application to the French AlpsRegional Stochastic GMPEs in Low‐Seismicity Areas: Scaling and Aleatory Variability Analysis
S. Drouet (2015)
Thirty-Year Bayesian Updating of PSHA for Hinkley Point NPP
G. Woo (2015)
UPDATING OF A PSHA BASED ON BAYESIAN INFERENCE WITH HISTORICAL MACROSEISMC INTENSITIES
E. Viallet (2016)



This paper is referenced by
Semantic Scholar Logo Some data provided by SemanticScholar