Online citations, reference lists, and bibliographies.
← Back to Search

Spatial Variation Of Crop Yield Response To Climate Change In East Africa

P. Thornton, P. Jones, G. Alagarswamy, J. Andresen
Published 2009 · Economics

Cite This
Download PDF
Analyze on Scholarcy
Share
There is general consensus that the impacts of climate change on agriculture will add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty, particularly in Africa. While these changes will influence agriculture at a broad scale, regional or country-level assessments can miss critical detail. We use high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for a combination of different future emission scenarios and climate models to drive detailed simulation models of the maize and bean crops. For the East African region, there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in this crop response. We evaluate the response of maize and beans to a changing climate, as a prelude to detailed targeting of options that can help smallholder households adapt. The results argue strongly against the idea of large, spatially contiguous development domains for identifying and implementing adaptation options, particularly in regions with large variations in topography and current average temperatures. Rather, they underline the importance of localised, community-based efforts to increase local adaptive capacity, take advantage of changes that may lead to increased crop and livestock productivity where this is possible, and to buffer the situations where increased stresses are likely.
This paper references
10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7
The DSSAT cropping system model
J. W. Jones (2003)
10.1017/S0014479700025291
Application of a Maize Crop Simulation Model in the Central Region of Malawi
P. Thornton (1995)
10.2307/1905265
Statistical tables for biological, agricultural aad medical research.
R. A. Fisher (1938)
10.1017/CBO9780511793677.004
Summary for policy makers
D. Arvizu (2011)
10.1016/0002-1571(77)90007-3
A simple formula for estimating evaporation rates in various climates, using temperature data alone
E. Linacre (1977)
10.1057/9781137302342.0008
Climate change and agriculture
A. Iglesias (2006)
10.1002/JOC.1276
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.
R. Hijmans (2005)
10.1007/978-94-017-3624-4
Understanding Options for Agricultural Production
G. Tsuji (1998)
10.1007/BF02987493
Millennium ecosystem assessment
M. Ahmed (2002)
10.1007/978-94-017-3624-4_6
The CROPGRO model for grain legumes
K. J. Boote (1998)
10.1007/978-94-017-3624-4_5
Cereal growth, development and yield
J. Ritchie (1998)
Current availability and deficiencies in data relevant to agro-ecological studies in the geographic area covered by the IARCs.
P. Jones (1987)
10.2134/AGRONJ2000.923445X
MarkSim: software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa.
P. G. Jones (2000)
10.1126/science.1152339
Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
D. Lobell (2008)
10.1016/S0168-1923(96)02399-4
Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall related to a third-order Markov model
P. G. Jones (1997)
10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0
The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055
P. G. Jones (2003)
10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2004.10.001
Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies
D. S. Thomas (2005)
Climate change and development: a consultation on key researchable issues.
S. Huq (2005)
10.1016/0308-521X(95)00028-4
International consortium for agricultural systems applications (ICASA): Establishment and purpose
J. Ritchie (1995)
10.1073/pnas.0701976104
Global food security under climate change
J. Schmidhuber (2007)
10.1029/93JD03278
Potential emissions of radiatively active gases from soil to atmosphere with special reference to methane: Development of a global database (WISE)
N. H. Batjes (1994)
10.1098/rstb.2005.1755
Introduction: food crops in a changing climate
J. Slingo (2005)
10.2134/AGRONJ1994.00021962008600010032X
BEANGRO: a process-oriented dry bean model with a versatile user interface
G. Hoogenboom (1994)
10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00067-2
FITTING A THIRD-ORDER MARKOV RAINFALL MODEL TO INTERPOLATED CLIMATE SURFACES
P. G. Jones (1999)
10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2003.10.008
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
M. Parry (2004)
Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
P. Thornton (2006)
10.1016/J.GEOFORUM.2007.03.011
Integrating diverse methods to understand climate–land interactions in East Africa
J. Olson (2008)
10.1016/0308-521X(95)00033-2
Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya
B. Wafula (1995)
10.5860/choice.39-3433
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
M. Parry (2001)
10.5860/choice.45-2135
Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country
W. Cline (2007)
10.1016/J.COMPAG.2007.01.001
Using the WISE database to parameterize soil inputs for crop simulation models
A. Gijsman (2007)
10.1029/2004GL021632
Multi‐model trends in East African rainfall associated with increased CO2
Maurice J. McHugh (2005)
FloraMap: a computer tool for predicting the distribution of plants and other organisms in the wild
P. G. Jones (2001)
10.1080/14735903.2006.9686008
Site selection to test an integrated approach to agricultural research for development: combining expert knowledge and participatory Geographic Information System methods
P. K. Thornton (2006)
10.3354/CR021001
A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas
M. New (2002)
10.2139/ssrn.644481
Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Crop Production Using a Cross-Entropy Method
Liangzhi You (2004)
A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100).
T. Mitchell (2004)
10.1038/nature04188
Impact of regional climate change on human health
J. Patz (2005)
10.1007/S003820050140
ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM
E. Roeckner (1996)
10.1007/978-94-017-3624-4_3
Soil water balance and plant water stress
J. Ritchie (1998)
10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00226-7
Transcending scales of space and time in impact studies of climate and climate change on agrohydrological responses
R. Schulze (2000)
With contributions from
Terence Roopnaraine (2007)
10.1029/2006GL027597
GCM simulations of the Indian Ocean dipole influence on East African rainfall: Present and future
D. Conway (2007)
10.1029/WR017I001P00182
Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation
C. W. Richardson (1981)



This paper is referenced by
10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0226.1
The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes
L. Garcia-Carreras (2015)
10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2013.02.009
Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century
K. Waha (2013)
10.1155/2012/951215
Forecasting the Influence of Climate Change on Agroecosystem Services: Potential Impacts on Honey Yields in a Small-Island Developing State
Diana L. Delgado (2012)
Role of community-based institutions, partnerships and practices in enhancing climate change adaptation in Mwanga district, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
Jonathan Lucas Kwiyega (2015)
10.1007/s10668-016-9861-0
Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe
Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya (2016)
Climate-Smart Agriculture: Farmer's Bane Or Boon?
Jeeva Mary Jacob (2015)
10.1007/978-3-319-41238-2
Climate Change and Multi-Dimensional Sustainability in African Agriculture
R. Lal (2016)
Increasing Food Production Resilience Through Eco-based Farming Practices Under Changing Climate in Tharaka-nithi County, Kenya
Victoria A Gioto (2018)
10.1016/J.AGSY.2012.05.003
A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data
Lieven Claessens (2012)
10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2013.03.009
Assessing the environmental impacts of high-altitude agriculture in Taiwan: A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and spatial emergy synthesis
Ying-Chen Lin (2013)
10.1007/978-3-319-19620-6_52
The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Distribution of Major Crops in Zambia and the Countermeasures
Yanqin Wang (2014)
10.5194/ISPRSARCHIVES-XXXVIII-8-W20-29-2011
UNDERSTANDING SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF CROPPING SYSTEM RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN PUNJAB STATE OF INDIA USING REMOTE SENSING DATA AND SIMULATION MODEL
Rojalin Tripathy (2012)
10.17660/actahortic.2018.1225.4
How future climatic uncertainty and biotic stressors might influence the sustainability of African vegetable production
J. D. H. Keatinge (2018)
10.1007/978-981-13-6101-2_6
Any Rain on Victoria Lake Is Only a Drop in the Bucket: A CGE Analysis of the Effects of Water Shortages on Food Security in Uganda
Jan Van Heerden (2019)
10.1016/J.STILL.2017.12.015
Promoting “4 Per Thousand” and “Adapting African Agriculture” by south-south cooperation: Conservation agriculture and sustainable intensification
R. Lal (2018)
10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040
Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa
B. Sultan (2013)
10.1007/978-94-007-2181-4_23
Implications of Climate Change on Sustainable Biofuel Production in Africa
S. Malaviya (2012)
10.1111/J.1365-2486.2009.01997.X
Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa
R. Doherty (2010)
Modelling Climate Variability and Climate Change and Their Associated Effects on Highland Cooking Banana Production in Uganda
G. Sabiiti (2016)
10.17863/CAM.16407
Incorporating costs and processes into systematic conservation planning in a biodiversity hotspot
J. Green (2012)
10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.10.009
An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands
R. McNider (2015)
10.5897/JDAE12.145
Food crop supply in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change
Elodie Blanc (2013)
10.1002/JOC.3835
Comparison of elevation and remote sensing derived products as auxiliary data for climate surface interpolation
Otto Alvarez (2014)
uture productivity of fallow systems in Sub-Saharan Africa : Is the effect of emographic pressure and fallow reduction more significant than climate hange ?
homas Gaisera (2011)
Climate change and the impacts on crop-agriculture in Tanzania
Habiba Ismail Mtongori (2016)
reating long-term weather data from thin air for crop imulation modeling
ustin Van Warta (2015)
10.1007/S10668-009-9203-6
Perceptions of climate change, multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts
M. Bunce (2010)
10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2010.07.008
On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change
D. Lobell (2010)
10.1088/1748-9326/AB25A1
Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields
Xiao Zhu (2019)
10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2014.11.009
Climate variability, food security and poverty: Agent-based assessment of policy options for farm households in Northern Ghana
T. Wossen (2015)
10.1007/s10584-013-0795-3
Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation
S. Whitfield (2013)
10.1007/978-3-319-41238-2_18
Crop Adaptation to Climate Change in SSA: The Role of Genetic Resources and Seed Systems
O. T. Westengen (2016)
See more
Semantic Scholar Logo Some data provided by SemanticScholar