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Abstract. Drought prediction is crucial, especially where the rainfall
regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined
drought indicator (CDI) integrating rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation
dynamics is proposed. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for
evaluating rainfall trends. A bucket-type soil moisture model is employed
for keeping track of soil moisture and calculating anomalies, and, finally,
satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are used for monitoring vegetation response. The
proposed CDI has four levels, at increasing degrees of severity: watch,
warning, alert type I and alert type II. This CDI was thus applied over the period 2003–2013 to five study sites,
representative of the main grain-growing areas of SW Spain. The performance
of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison with observed crop damage data. Observations show a good match between crop damage and the CDI. Important
crop drought events in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, distinguished by crop damage
in between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area, were correctly predicted
by the proposed CDI in all five areas.
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